Performa Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) dalam Memprediksi Mortalitas 30 Hari Pasien Usia Lanjut di Instalasi Gawat Darurat

Aulia Rizka, Kuntjoro Harimurti, Ceva W Pitoyo, Sukamto Koesnoe

Abstract

Pendahuluan. Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) merupakan suatu instrumen yang banyak digunakan untuk melakukan stratifikasi risiko pasien non-bedah di Instalasi Gawat Darurat (IGD). Namun, pasien usia lanjut yang datang ke IGD seringkali datang dengan manifestasi klinis yang atipikal, sehingga performa REMS untuk populasi khusus ini perlu diuji. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menilai performa REMS pada populasi pasien usia lanjut yang datang ke IGD.

Metode. Dilakukan penelitian kohort prospektif berbasis penelitian prognostik pada pasien usia >60 tahun yang datang ke IGD RS dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo (RSCM), Jakarta selama September hingga Oktober 2016. Subjek diikuti selama 30 hari sejak kedatangan ke IGD. Selanjutnya dilakukan perhitungan kalibrasi (uji Hosmer Lemeshow) dan diskriminasi (perhitungan Area under ROC Curve) REMS dalam memprediksi mortalitas 30 hari pasien usia lanjut.

Hasil. Terdapat 321 pasien usia lanjut masuk IGD selama periode penelitian dan 306 di antaranya memenuhi kriteria pemilihan. Dari seluruh subjek, 163 (53,2% pasien adalah laki-laki. Insiden kematian 30 hari sebanyak 22,8% (IK95% 22,3-23,3). Rerata usia 68,3 (SB 6,7) tahun. Sebanyak 83 (27%) pasien dikategorikan triage merah. Terdapat 154 (50%) pasien dengan REMS 0-7, 140 (46%) dengan REMS 8-17 dan 12(4%) with REMS lebih dari 17. Plot kalibrasi menunjukkan r=0,23 dengan hasil uji Hosmer Lemeshow buruk (p=0,00). AUC REMS untuk memprediksi mortalitas 30 hari pasien usia lanjut adalah 0,45 (95% CI 0,23-0,66).

Simpulan. REMS menunjukkan performa yang buruk dalam memprediksi mortalitas 30 hari pasien usia lanjut di IGD.

 

Kata Kunci: IGD, mortalitas, REMS, usia lanjut

  

Validation of Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) in Predicting 30 days Mortality in Elderly Visiting Emergency Department

Introduction. Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) has been known as a useful instrument to stratify patients in emergency department (ED) based on its ability to predict short term mortality. As the clinical characteristics of elderly patients visiting ED are frequently aypical, validation of REMS in this specific population is very important. To measure predictive validity of REMS in elderly patients visiting ED

Methods. Prospective cohort study in elderly visiting ED of Cipto Mangunkusumo between September to October 2016. Subjects were followed for 30 days after visiting ED. Calibration (Hosmer Lemeshow test), discrimination (Area Under ROC Curve) and REMS predictive value of 30 days mortality were measured.

Result. Of 321 elderly subjects visiting ED during study period, 306 subjects were included in the study. Among them, 163 (53,2%) were men. 30 days mortality incidence was 22,8% (95% CI 22,3-23,3). Median age was 68,3 (6,7) year. As many as 83 (27%) subjects were in red triage. There were 154 (50%) patients with REMS 0-7, 140 (46%) with REMS 8-17 and 12(4%) with REMS more than 17. Calibration plot shows r=0,23 with poor calibration (p=0,00) in Hosmer Lemeshow test. AUC of REMS in predicting 30 days mortality in elderly was 0,45 (95% CI 0,23-0,66).

Conclusion. REMS shows poor calibration and discrimination in eldery patients visiting ED. 

Keywords

ED, elderly, mortality, REMS

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